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Markets & Geopolitics — May 15, 2026
Two of America's biggest companies walked into Beijing with sky-high expectations. The results were complicated.
Closed at $229.21 on May 14
Expectation gap hurt the stock
Tech stocks rallied on H200 news
Deal clears — but deliveries pending
Boeing — A deal, but not the deal
200 jets confirmed · 500 expected · Stock fell ~5%
Before Trump landed in Beijing, Wall Street was buzzing. Analysts at Jefferies had penciled in a blockbuster order of 500–600 Boeing aircraft — the company's first major sale to China since Trump's 2017 visit, when Beijing ordered 300 jets. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg flew with the presidential delegation, a move that practically screamed: something big is coming.
What actually came was significantly smaller. Trump announced on Fox News that China agreed to buy 200 jets — a real order, a genuine diplomatic win, but not the number the market had priced in.
The expectation trap: Boeing stock had already climbed in premarket trading on hopes of 500+ jets. When the real number came in at 200, shares gave back all those gains and then some — closing down 4.73% at $229.21.
Beyond the headline number, several details remain unclear: which aircraft types were ordered, which Chinese airlines will receive them, and when deliveries will actually begin. Analysts note that Chinese aircraft orders linked to diplomatic visits often reflect political optics as much as commercial reality.
What this means for BA: The 200-jet order represents only about 3% of Boeing's existing backlog of 6,800+ aircraft. The company's bigger challenge isn't winning orders — it's clearing them. Boeing is currently delivering 47 commercial jets per month, still far below what's needed to work through the queue.
Wall Street still holds a "Strong Buy" consensus with a $273.86 average price target — well above Thursday's close of $229.21.
Boeing is up just 0.63% year-to-date, and still down more than 47% from its pre-737 MAX crisis highs.
Q1 2026 revenue rose 14% to $22.2 billion, with production stabilizing at 42 jets per month — a slow but real recovery.
Nvidia — The chips are cleared, but the game isn't over
H200 approved for ~10 Chinese firms · No deliveries yet
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang wasn't originally on the guest list for Trump's Beijing trip. He was picked up in Alaska on the way over — a last-minute addition that immediately set markets buzzing about what it might mean for chip exports to China.
It turned out to be significant. Shortly after the summit began, Reuters reported that the U.S. had cleared around 10 major Chinese tech firms — including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com — to purchase Nvidia's H200 AI chips. Tech stocks rallied on the news.
Why it matters: Before U.S. export restrictions tightened, Nvidia commanded roughly 95% of China's advanced chip market. Losing access to that market cost the company billions in potential revenue. The H200 approval opens a door that had been firmly shut.
The catch: Approval doesn't mean delivery. Despite the green light from Washington, not a single H200 chip has been delivered to China so far. Chinese firms reportedly pulled back from orders after guidance from Beijing, where pressure is mounting to keep AI investment focused on domestic chip development.
The deal also comes with a novel condition: Trump said the U.S. government would receive a 25% cut of H200 chip sales to China — a structure with no real precedent in tech trade, adding another layer of uncertainty to the timeline.
The H200 is Nvidia's second-most powerful AI chip — not its top-of-the-line product, but still far more capable than what China's own chipmakers can currently produce.
Lenovo confirmed it is "one of several companies approved to sell H200 in China" under Nvidia's export license.
Analysts at Barclays called access to Nvidia chips "the greatest bottleneck in AI" for Chinese firms competing globally.
Bottom line for investors
The China deal is real, but smaller than hoped. The stock's recovery depends far more on production execution than on diplomatic wins. Watch the Q2 delivery numbers due July 28.
The regulatory door is now open — that's genuinely bullish. But until Chinese firms actually start placing and receiving orders, the upside remains potential rather than realized. Monitor Beijing's next move.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock prices referenced are from May 14, 2026. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.